[
  {
    "path": "wins/2026-02.md",
    "outcome": "CASHOUT",
    "stake": 20.0,
    "return": 13.34,
    "legs": [
      "2026-02-07 \u2014 Man Utd vs Tottenham SGP hit (Man Utd or Tie; Bryan Mbeumo 1+ shot on target; Over 1.5 match goals). $50 \u2192 $83.34.",
      "2026-02-07 \u2014 Chelsea @ Wolves SGP hit (Tie or Chelsea; Chelsea 2+ goals; match goals 1\u20135; Chelsea 3+ corners) w/ 50% profit boost. $40 \u2192 $100.",
      "2026-02-07 \u2014 Leverkusen @ M'gladbach SGP cash-out (damage control): $20 stake, cashed out $13.34; ticket ultimately wouldn\u2019t have hit."
    ]
  },
  {
    "path": "wins/README.md",
    "outcome": "WIN",
    "stake": null,
    "return": null,
    "legs": []
  },
  {
    "path": "wins/2026-02-07 -- betting.md",
    "outcome": "WIN",
    "stake": 50.0,
    "return": 83.34,
    "legs": [
      "Man Utd or Tie (Double Chance)",
      "Bryan Mbeumo \u2014 Over 0.5 shots on target",
      "Over 1.5 match goals",
      "Closest leg(s): (fill if you recall)",
      "Good structure: 2 anchors + 1 \u201cstat leg\u201d.",
      "Tie or Chelsea (Double Chance)",
      "Chelsea \u2014 Over 1 goals (3-way team total = Chelsea 2+)",
      "Match goals range: 1\u20135",
      "Chelsea \u2014 Over 2 corners (3-way team corners = Chelsea 3+)",
      "Corners leg fits the \u201cChelsea on the front foot\u201d story.",
      "3-way team total is where variance lives; prefer 1+ goal when available."
    ]
  },
  {
    "path": "wins/TEMPLATE_bet_postmortem.md",
    "outcome": "WIN",
    "stake": null,
    "return": null,
    "legs": [
      "Match:",
      "One-line storyline:",
      "Closest leg(s):",
      "If loss: was it a bad beat or a dumb bet?",
      "What worked:",
      "What to avoid next time:",
      "[ ] No \u201c3-way\u201d team totals unless price/edge is strong",
      "[ ] Prefer double chance / DNB anchors",
      "[ ] Prefer goals range / over 1.5 rather than exact scores",
      "[ ] Prefer corners/team corners over anytime scorers",
      "[ ] Avoid stacking multiple high-variance legs"
    ]
  },
  {
    "path": "wins/2026-02-07 -- cashouts.md",
    "outcome": "WIN",
    "stake": null,
    "return": null,
    "legs": [
      "Leverkusen @ M'gladbach SGP: cashed out for $13.34 after Leverkusen got 2 quick shots late; ticket ultimately would not have hit. Treat as damage control / good process."
    ]
  },
  {
    "path": "losses/2026-02-07 -- anomalies.md",
    "outcome": "LOSS",
    "stake": null,
    "return": null,
    "legs": [
      "Leverkusen @ M'gladbach: 0 shots on target at 83' despite Leverkusen being a short away favourite pre-match (~2.00). Ticket leg impacted: Leverkusen over 2.5 shots on target.",
      "Note: indicates that even \u201csensible\u201d SOT legs can be extremely fragile when shot quality is low and attempts are blocked/off-target.",
      "Rule candidate: prefer corners/team corners or 1+ team goal over team SOT thresholds unless live stats show early on-target volume."
    ]
  },
  {
    "path": "losses/2026-02-09 -- atalanta-cremonese-sgp-card-leg-lost.md",
    "outcome": "LOSS",
    "stake": 20.0,
    "return": 37.39,
    "legs": [
      "**Cremonese over 0 cards** (away team total cards 3-way) \u274c (0 cards)",
      "**Atalanta over 3 corners** (home team total corners 3-way) \u2705",
      "**Match goals range 1\u20135** \u2705",
      "HT: Atalanta 2\u20130",
      "Stats at HT (from screenshot): possession 60/40; xG 0.90\u20130.05; shots 13\u20132; corners 4\u20130.",
      "Script was correct: Atalanta controlled territory and chances.",
      "**Cards leg is ref-dependent**. Even with underdog chasing, sometimes a card never comes.",
      "Cards legs are useful but **fragile**.",
      "Prefer:",
      "using cards only when fixture/ref/profile supports it, OR",
      "replacing with less subjective legs (corners, goals range) when available.",
      "Cashout decision point: late-game cashout offered was only ~75% of stake (~$15), not worth taking."
    ]
  },
  {
    "path": "losses/README.md",
    "outcome": "LOSS",
    "stake": null,
    "return": null,
    "legs": []
  },
  {
    "path": "losses/2026-02-07 -- betting.md",
    "outcome": "LOSS",
    "stake": 20.0,
    "return": 0.0,
    "legs": [
      "Real Sociedad or Tie (DC) \u2705",
      "Real Sociedad over 2 corners (3-way team corners = 3+) \u274c (finished with 2 corners)",
      "Over 1 match goals (2+) \u2705",
      "Match goals range 1\u20135 \u2705",
      "This is a clean example of a \"quiet stat\" leg killing an otherwise correct read.",
      "Corners: prefer lower thresholds or non-3-way lines when available; corners are not guaranteed even with territorial dominance."
    ]
  }
]